For OKC's sake, it's probably a good thing Jay Leno no longer is on the Tonight Show, because there's little doubt this wouldn't have made the show.

I'm in D.C. for the week at the NAHB Spring Board of Directors meeting and just got to be a part of HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan's official announcement that those eligible for the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit can now use that money directly towards their down payment. Good news for the housing industry, no doubt.

The Journal Record juxtaposes my outlook on 2009 Oklahoma City Metro residential permits with that of Home Builders Association of Greater Tulsa President, Brandon Perkins's forecast for the Tulsa area.

As quoted in the article, Brandon projects:

I was asked independently what my forecast would be for the Oklahoma City Metro, to which I said:

I haven't analyzed Tulsa's numbers like I have OKC's, and I'm not disputing Brandon's projection. But what is possible in Tulsa isn't going to happen in Oklahoma City.

I am an optimist in that I choose to seek and find opportunity and good things to pursue in situations, rather than unproductively dwelling on the negative. That being said, I can't be reckless for the sake of spin on this question in regard to what I know to be true about Oklahoma City's permit numbers.


Based on our year-to-date permits pulled, we're currently down 42% over this time last year. To simply match last year's permit numbers, we would have to pull 3,920 permits between April through the end of December. That's an average of just over 435 permits a month consistently through the end of the year. We only broke that number in two months of 2008.

I just don't see it being viable here in our current market climate, nor do I hope to see it happen. Let the market continue to equalize with demand.

* As I was quoted, it leaves one to wonder if I was calling B.S. on Brandon's projection. I was asked if I had any predictions for how we'd end up for the year, to which I said "I wouldn't be so bold..." because it's too early in the year to say. The follow up question to that was what I had to say about Brandon's projection, to which I said "I would hope he's right..."

Todd Booze handles The Oklahoman's Q&A today and discusses the new Certified Green Professional Builder designation adopted by the Oklahoma State Home Builders Association.

The certification requires 24-hours of association approved training with a continuing education requirement beyond the initial designation. Any home built by a CGP must obtain an independent 3rd party verification of having met one of the many possible Green standards.

Oklahoma City Metro area permit numbers are tallied for the month of March, 2009, and show that builders (and, perhaps, their bankers) are still keeping a firm grip on the reigns of inventory production moving into the 2nd quarter of the year. March brought forth a 10% increase in permits pulled over February, but year to date permit totals are down 42% over last year.



One noticeable characteristic of the first quarter of 2009 is the lack of spike seen in February or March previous years. There's a distinct cause for this, which I'll discuss in a subsequent post in the coming days.



In looking at the 3-year trend, an optimist can't help but wonder if this is the dip we've been waiting for...



Permit totals include single-family housing permits reported by these municipalities and/or counties: Oklahoma City, Nichols Hills, Warr Acres, Bethany, Midwest City, Village, Oklahoma County, Edmond, Yukon, Moore, Mustang, Norman, Choctaw, El Reno, Piedmont, Blanchard, Newcastle, Tuttle.

There are two common punch-lines people toss at me in reference to the high tech amenities I've come to be known for. One invariably involves some reference to having to "click" your home, and the other is if my homes are as cool as HAL 9000.

To those making reference to the former, I just laugh like it's the first time I've heard the joke. To those asking the latter, I simply can't help but wonder, "Have you actually seen "2001 A Space Odyssey"? HAL goes rogue in the end, friends, and maybe that's what has Mize in a mood this week.

Oklahoma City gets the nod from Forbes as the 12th best city for business and careers.

Although cul-de-sacs serve, as they did for me growing up, as the ideal locale for a great game of kickball or, even better, baseball, I personally avoid them like the plague when it comes to building on them. Cul-de-sac lots, due to shape, are generally prohibitive of any sort of decent spacial arrangement of structures (unless pre-planned together), usually create shallow back yards flanked by awkward triangle side-yards, and often only exaserbate the garage-heavy frontage that suburbia is increasingly criticized for.

Try, sometime perhaps when you're bored, fitting two brick mailboxes and your city-walk between two 3-car-width driveways that come together on a shared curb radius. Then, try to park anything more than a Skittle at the curb.


I can tell you for a fact, though, based on my experience in working with home buyers that they are indeed attractive to those with kids, and very effective at creating more protective play space. If you disagree, just ask some folks in Fenwick.

Dustbury provides point, counterpoint on the ensuing debate regarding the pros and cons of cul-de-sacs, as precipitated by a the state of Virginia's placing of restrictions on future developments' use of the iconic suburban element.

I don't buy into the all of the reasoning behind state's arguments, nor do I think they should be prohibited when they meet accessibility and emergency services requirements. Batesline takes an entirely different angle with an argument so surgically made it makes one wonder if blogging isn't his only after-hours gig.

Remodeler Magazine reports on a Move.com survey's results, which indicate that 1 in 4 Americans plans to buy a home within the next 5 years.

The biggest factor playing into that statistic?

Robert Fillmore is somewhat of a design legend in Oklahoma City. He may never own up to that, and though he's almost single-handedly brought about a mini-country French design movement within Oklahoma, he will probably hesitate with humility before admitting that there are more homes around the country based on his designs than there are here in the state.

To prove that, two of his plans were deemed by Builder Magazine as among the top 10 best-selling consumer house plans in the country.

I've heard the story about his first trip to the IBS, in the days when he designed out of his garage in Quail Creek. He rented a booth to distribute a few of his famed plan books, and half way through the show as word spread of his designs, he was out of books and scrambling to get as many copies as he could get made to keep up with demand.

That was a long time, and thousands of homes ago.

National housing starts are up 22% for February over January, 2009. However, that statistic is comprised of both single and multi-family permits, with the bulk of the gains being made in mult-family. In the Oklahoma City market, we're weighted towards single-family construction, for which permits were up 21% for the month.

Good news, yes. Trend? Not yet.

Builder Online has recently rated Oklahoma City as the 17th healthiest housing market, out of the 75 largest markets throughout the country. The article cites strong job growth, strong home values, and COHBA's Defy The Trends media campaign from last year.