The Journal Record
juxtaposes my outlook on 2009 Oklahoma City Metro residential permits with that of
Home Builders Association of Greater Tulsa President, Brandon Perkins's forecast for the Tulsa area.
As quoted in the article, Brandon projects:
I think we could see something like a 3-percent increase this year, which is very modest, but the tortoise wins every time and that is what we’ve seen through the ‘80s.
I was asked independently what my forecast would be for the Oklahoma City Metro, to which I said:
I don’t think I would be that bold this time of the year*...I would hope he’s right. He’s pretty bright.
I haven't analyzed Tulsa's numbers like I have OKC's, and I'm not disputing Brandon's projection. But what is possible in Tulsa isn't going to happen in Oklahoma City.
I am an optimist in that I choose to seek and find opportunity and good things to pursue in situations, rather than unproductively dwelling on the negative. That being said, I can't be reckless for the sake of spin on this question in regard to what I know to be true about Oklahoma City's permit numbers.
Based on our year-to-date permits pulled, we're currently down 42% over this time last year. To simply
match last year's permit numbers, we would have to pull 3,920 permits between April through the end of December. That's an average of just over 435 permits a month consistently through the end of the year. We only broke that number in two months of 2008.
I just don't see it being viable here in our current market climate, nor do I hope to see it happen. Let the market continue to equalize with demand.
* As I was quoted, it leaves one to wonder if I was calling B.S. on Brandon's projection. I was asked if I had any predictions for how we'd end up for the year, to which I said "I wouldn't be so bold..." because it's too early in the year to say. The follow up question to that was what I had to say about Brandon's projection, to which I said "I would hope he's right..."
